The Patriots flew to Munich with two healthy running backs, and the cheaper one belongs in your Week 10 lineup.
Receipts
- Week 7 Friday, we went down on Tre Tucker. He hung 18.8 half-PPR points and a WR11 finish on us. Miss.
- Same piece, down on Tyler Shough: 14.8 points, QB18. Hit.
- Week 9 Saturday, we started Omar Cooper Jr.: 9.8 points, WR30, graded a miss. Remember that when you get to the noise section.
What's Real
Corey Kiner, RB, Patriots
Start him as an RB2. New England's backfield emptied in a week. TreVeyon Henderson missed both practices and is ruled out with an illness. Rhamondre Stevenson has a plantaris tendon issue behind his knee that Ian Rapoport says costs him "the next few weeks." Stevenson did get to limited on Thursday and made the trip, but he worked off to the side. That leaves Kiner and Lan Larison as the only healthy backs on the 53. Kiner has 244 yards on 50 carries, 4.9 a pop. He's also played just 18% of the snaps in each of the last two games, so this is a vacancy call, not a breakout call. Detroit allows the third-fewest half-PPR points to backs. But the Lions are only 2.5-point favorites with the total above 50, so this shouldn't turn into a blowout that buries the run game. One wrinkle: Mike Vrabel wants Kiner to get better at picking up pressure, so Larison could steal passing downs. Flip: Friday's designation won't settle this. It can tell you whether Stevenson plays, but not how much he can handle after working off to the side at Thursday's jog-through. If Stevenson is out, Kiner stays an RB2. If he's active, Kiner's value rides on how much of the load Stevenson actually carries, so treat Kiner as a flex.
Tank Dell, WR, Texans
Start him as a WR3. On Thursday, Marvin Harrison Jr. went from limited to no practice with a hamstring problem. Dell went the other way, upgrading to full with his hand and shoulder. Last week, in his first real workload, he drew nine targets on 47% of the snaps and caught a 63-yard touchdown from C.J. Stroud in the 44-22 win over the Chargers. If Harrison's hamstring keeps him out, routes open up behind Nico Collins, but nobody has said who gets them or how deep they'll run. Dell's nine targets came with Harrison on the field, so call the bump possible, not promised. The catch is the setting. Houston is a 4.5-point favorite in a 40.5-total game in Cleveland. As of early Friday, the National Weather Service's hourly forecast for the kickoff window shows a 33% chance of rain and winds up to 12 mph. Flip: if Harrison practices fully Friday and gets no designation, Dell slides to flex.
Germie Bernard, WR, Steelers
Start him as a WR3. Michael Pittman Jr. is eligible to come off IR, but Pittsburgh hasn't designated him to return, and Pittman himself says, "I can't go out there if I'm not effective." So the job stays with Bernard. He's played at least 85% of the snaps in four straight games and drew 31 targets over that stretch. In Week 8 he ran a route on 22 of Aaron Rodgers' 26 dropbacks. The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs in a 49.5-total night game in Cincinnati, and that script means volume. Flip: none realistic before lock. Pittman hasn't practiced.
What's Noise
Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Jets
Hold him, and let Friday's report make the lineup call. All 11 of those targets came with Wilson out with a concussion. They turned into 8 catches for 58 yards, mostly dump-offs from the slot. The week before, against Las Vegas, Cooper drew zero targets on 78% of the snaps. That blank is the risk, but it's one game, not the job: he'd posted back-to-back 100-yard games against New England and Miami right before it. Wilson practiced limited Wednesday and Thursday. So did Cooper, with a sore ankle. Flip: if Wilson is cleared and Cooper's ankle carries a designation, bench him. If Wilson sits and the ankle checks out, Cooper's a flex against a Buffalo defense that lets receivers eat.
Tyler Allgeier, RB, Cardinals
Sit him. His 96% snap share last week happened because Bam Knight was in the concussion protocol. Knight practiced in full Thursday. Before Week 9, Allgeier hadn't topped 64% of the snaps all season. Rookie Carson Beck is expected to make his first start, and Arizona is a 9.5-point home dog in a 39.5-total game. Flip: Knight shows up with a designation on Friday's report.
Aaron Jones Sr., RB, Vikings
Sell him. Demond Claiborne's trip to IR looks like it frees up touches, but Claiborne had six carries all season. The real problem is Jordan Mason. Since Mason returned from his thumb injury in Week 7, Jones has played 25%, 40% and 35% of the snaps, with 9, 7 and 6 opportunities. In Weeks 2 through 5 he played 73% to 87%. What he's lost is the workhorse volume he had while Mason was hurt. He also left the Week 7 game with a knee injury that Kevin O'Connell called day to day, so a permanent demotion isn't proven. What is clear is that he isn't getting enough work to trust with Minnesota as the road underdog at Lambeau. Bench him, and sell to anyone who believes the Claiborne bump.
Usage Watch: Houston's Backfield
Woody Marks felt knee discomfort Wednesday and left practice early as a precaution, per KPRC's Aaron Wilson. Then he sat out Thursday. David Montgomery was limited, his first practice since hurting his groin in Week 5. The lean: start Marks if he's back as a full participant Friday and active Sunday. If he's limited again or carries a designation, he's a flex: a knee that cost him Thursday, with Montgomery back at practice, is how a lead back ends up in a split. He's played 66% to 89% of the snaps in his last four games. If Marks sits, Montgomery is a flex, and Emari Demercado is the fallback if neither goes. Check inactives at 8:30 a.m. PT Sunday. The number that settles the rest of the month is Montgomery's snap share. Under 40% means a committee.
Thursday Night
Back from his hamstring, Cam Skattebo turned 18 carries into 78 yards and two scores and added 3 catches for 44 yards. Buy him as the Giants' lead back. Isaiah Likely's career-high 9-127 includes a 66-yard touchdown, so pay for the targets, not the yardage.
Bold Predictions (ours)
- Kiner scores two touchdowns. Henderson is out, and Stevenson is, at best, playing on a sore knee, so the short-yardage work should land on Kiner.
- Dell clears 100 receiving yards again, rain and wind and all. He drew nine targets with Harrison playing, and a Harrison absence only adds routes.
- Bernard catches eight passes. That's WR1 route share, and Cincinnati will make Pittsburgh throw.
- Knight outrushes Allgeier by 30 yards. The 96% snap share was a one-week loan.
- Cooper finishes under 5 half-PPR points. It needs Wilson back and the ankle to linger, but he's already had one zero-target game this year.