Week 7 Trends: Start Malik Nabers for Targets

We judge each call on three things: an established share of the work, a recent workload that can hold, and enough scoring chances in the matchup. Per the Week 6 box score, Malik Nabers drew 15 targets. That volume supports a start at HOU if he sees another heavy target load. A low team total limits touchdown chances, but steady targets still bring catches and yards. We would start Nabers unless kickoff news gives a concrete reason to expect his target workload to shrink.

Thursday Night Takeaways

Final: CHI 30, NE 24.

Thursday's result is settled, but the receiving and backfield decisions below belong to different games. A final score cannot tell us whether Germie Bernard's recent increase in work will persist or whether Kenneth Walker III will keep the usual touches. We will use those roles first, then check kickoff news when a recent workload increase is central to a call.

Players getting hot

We are watching usage, not confirmed multiweek hot streaks. A crowded receiving group can produce a big afternoon; we ask whether Malik Nabers's place in the offense supports another.

Deshaun Watson's rushing can help when his passing output is modest. As the starter, he took 7.5 rushes a game through Week 6. Our previous add call missed, and CLE's low implied total at TEN leaves little scoring cushion. We would hold Watson as an option for a lineup seeking quarterback rushing. If that ground workload falls away, the case gets thin.

Christian McCaffrey brings carries and targets into the game at ATL. Within his committee back role, he played 84% of the snaps in his two most recent games. The snap share supports his touches, but he has scored more than his opportunities usually produce, so we would not expect another touchdown-heavy game. We are starting the combined rushing and receiving work. A smaller share of either would weaken that call.

For Malik Nabers, the established receiving role matters more than the latest catch total. He drew a 30% target share through Week 6. Similar jumps in opportunity held less than half the time in 2025, so not every recent target may return. NYG's low implied total at HOU limits his touchdown chances, but his established share still warrants a start. Keep him in unless kickoff news gives reason to expect a substantial target reduction.

Isaiah Likely's receiving work predates his latest big game. As a regular tight end, he drew 9.8 targets a game through Week 6. We previously called for him to fall short and missed; the larger recent workload changes our call. NYG's scoring outlook makes a touchdown hard to count on, so we are starting Likely for targets and catches. If the expanded work disappears, the low team total becomes harder to absorb.

Regression/volatility candidates

A touchdown column can catch the eye before the workload beside it. These players have different paths to usefulness if last week's scoring plays do not repeat.

Our previous call to sit Tyler Shough missed. As the starter, Shough threw 39.2 passes a game through Week 6, which gives him real volume. The forecast for the open-air game against PIT calls for 21 mph wind. We are wary of counting on another touchdown-heavy passing result and would sit Shough when a steadier quarterback is available. Sustained attempts would make that choice closer.

Walker had 19 carries in Week 6. His opportunities have eased in his two most recent games. He has also outscored his opportunities through Week 6, and KC has a low implied total. We still start him for his carries. A further reduction in touches would make us revisit it.

Tre Tucker's regular receiver role brought 5.8 targets a game through Week 6. Touchdowns drove his latest result, so that target rate is the safer guide this week. LV hosts LAR, and we see a possible touchdown path for a lineup seeking upside. Use Tucker only if your lineup needs touchdown upside, and favor steadier receiving volume when it is available.

Kyle Pitts Sr. has played more snaps recently within his rotational tight end role. The increase in receiving opportunities is less secure: comparable jumps held less than half the time in 2025. ATL's high-total matchup against SF offers scoring chances, but Pitts has scored more than his opportunities usually produce through Week 6. We would bench him for steadier targets unless kickoff news gives reason to trust the expanded workload.

Other standouts

We can use C.J. Stroud's attempts, Jonathan Taylor's touches and Germie Bernard's place on the field to judge whether each big game fits that player's usual work.

Stroud attempted 36.5 passes a game through Week 6. HOU is favored against NYG, which adds scoring chances to that passing base. Our earlier sit call missed; we are starting Stroud now. A comfortable lead could cut late attempts, and the start does not depend on matching last week's touchdown total.

Jonathan Taylor's result fits the workload of a lead back with rushing and receiving chances. He had 24.2 opportunities a game through Week 6, although that workload eased in his two most recent games. IND's low implied total at MIN reduces touchdown chances, but his touches still support a start. Start Taylor; a meaningful reduction in carries or targets would give us reason to reconsider.

Germie Bernard's receiving game stands out from his earlier rotational receiver work. He played 93% of snaps in his two most recent games. Comparable opportunity jumps held less than half the time in 2025, so the catch total alone cannot establish a lasting target role. Hold Bernard as an upside option at NO, and check kickoff news before starting him over a receiver with more established work.

Closing weekend posture

Before lineup lock, check kickoff news for any workload change affecting the recent receiver and tight end increases. We will keep established targets and touches in lineups, then decide whether a lineup needs the upside of a less settled role.