Start Kendre Miller (NO), fade Alvin Kamara (NO), and stop paying full price for last week's touchdowns.
Receipts
Misses: Tre Tucker (LV) 18.8, Isaiah Likely (NYG) 2.2, Kyle Pitts Sr. (ATL) 10.7.
Wednesday's Pitts sit stands anyway, on 58% of the snaps and 4.0 targets a game.
One change from Tuesday: the Sam Darnold (SEA) add is off. Seattle ruled him out with a quad injury.
What's real
Miller, start. Miller's snaps climbed from 26% to 42% over New Orleans' last two games. His opportunities nearly doubled, from 8.8 a game to 17.5.
His season role has been worth 8.9 points a game against the 5.7 he's scored, so we expect the production to catch up. New Orleans is a 3.5-point home favorite over Cleveland with 14 days of rest.
This is a lean, not a lock: the 17.5 rests on Miller's 22 opportunities in Week 6, when Kamara played 26% of the snaps, and in Week 7 they split 13 apiece with Kamara at 56%. Wednesday's start stands. Wednesday's Etienne flip is off the table.
D'Andre Swift (CHI), start. Kyle Monangai (CHI) sat out the last four games with a thumb injury. Swift has played 81% of the snaps in the last two games, up from 57%, with 28.0 opportunities a game. We wouldn't bet on last week's three touchdowns again. Swift had 30 opportunities last week. That workload can repeat.
Chicago hosts Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite, the script a workhorse wants, so Wednesday's start holds. Monangai is questionable after a limited practice, with thumb and toe injuries. If Monangai plays, we'd expect Swift's workload to drift back. Swift averaged 19.3 opportunities a game before his last two games. That's still a start.
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN), start. Chase has played 92% of the snaps in his last two games, up from 76%. His 16 targets last week turned into 11 catches and 141 yards. We expect the snaps to hold.
Cincinnati's game against Atlanta in Madrid kicks off first, on Sunday morning, so set Chase before the rest of your lineup. It has the week's highest total at 52.5, and the Bengals are implied for 27.75. The start doesn't need a repeat of last week.
What's noise
Kamara, fade. The red flag is one big snap game: 56% in his last outing, after never topping 38% this season, for just 13 opportunities. Wednesday's sit stands, with no flip.
We were up on him last time, and he scored 13.9. Hit. Miller averages 17.5 opportunities a game over his last two games. Kamara averages 12.0 opportunities a game over his last two games.
Allgeier, sell. Tyler Allgeier (ARI) scored 33.6 last week on 16 opportunities. The role is the story: a change-of-pace back with a 35% rush share and 11.8 opportunities a game. That role is worth 9.1 points a game, and he's scored 9.2, so we see no hidden upside.
Now Arizona goes to Seattle in rain and 18 mph wind, with 15.5 implied points, last of 28 teams. Tuesday's add stands, but we'd use him only as a last-resort FLEX. If someone in your league pays for the big game, take it.
Devin Singletary (NYG), fade. Singletary is 20.5% rostered on ESPN, up 7.5 points in a week. The chase is on. Singletary's 13.0 in the last game rested on one touchdown, worth 6 of those points. It came on 29% of the snaps and 8 opportunities.
The season role is 6.8 opportunities a game, worth 5.0 points against 7.4 scored. That's touchdowns over opportunity, at Philadelphia in the week's lowest total, 38.5. We'd leave Singletary on the bench.
Kirk Cousins (LV), sell. Sell the line, not the start. Cousins scored 28.2 on just 26 attempts last week because four touchdowns landed, three passing and one rushing. Cousins averages 35.4 pass attempts and 20.6 points a game. We don't expect four scores on 26 attempts again.
Wednesday's start stands. Las Vegas is a 10-point underdog at San Francisco, in sun and 8 mph wind, so the attempts should come back. Start Cousins, and if someone offers last week's price in a trade, take it.
Usage watch
Mike Washington Jr. (LV), stash. Tuesday's stash stands, and he stays on your bench this week. The rookie played 60% of the snaps with 25 carries last week, after 20% of the snaps before the last two games.
Those 25 carries went for 83 yards, and with Las Vegas trailing in most scripts we can picture, the work may not be there on Sunday.
Bold predictions
We'll grade them in Receipts, win or lose.
- Joe Burrow (CIN): We think he throws four touchdown passes against Atlanta in Madrid on Sunday morning, in the game that kicks off first. Burrow averages 38.1 attempts a game, and last week's 48 went for 462 yards.
- Chase: We think he catches 12 passes on Sunday morning, in the game that kicks off first. Cincinnati is only a 3-point favorite, so we don't see anyone running out the clock on him.
- Swift: We say 30 opportunities and two touchdowns, even if Monangai plays. Swift has 37 red-zone looks this season, and we expect a few more on Sunday night.
- Brock Bowers (LV), start: We say 10 catches at San Francisco. He gets 10.3 targets a game and has 11 red-zone looks, and a big underdog has to throw.
- Cousins: We think he tops his 35.4 average at San Francisco, even after we told you to sell, because a 10-point underdog has to throw.