Breece Hall missed Weeks 6 and 7 with a quadricep injury, and Braelon Allen (NYJ) has taken the work, capped by 21 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown against Las Vegas. Buy Allen now, and treat most of Sunday's other fireworks as touchdowns, not roles.
Receipts
Michael Wilson (ARI), start. Wednesday we said start Wilson over DK Metcalf (PIT) for his 90% snap share and 9.4 targets a game. He drew 15 targets and turned them into 111 yards and a score. Metcalf scored 0.9 points. Hit, and the volume is real.
Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE), start. Wednesday's call was start. In a 27-6 loss at Pittsburgh, he caught 10 of 12 targets for 154 yards and 18.4 points. Hit. Expect the yards to come down, not the snaps: he's played 87% of them this season.
Michael Penix Jr. (ATL), hold. Tuesday we said add him in superflex and two-QB leagues. He threw for 125 yards on 24 attempts and scored 2.1 points as Atlanta got shut out 16-0 at Tampa Bay. Miss. We're holding in those formats, because he's played 99% of Atlanta's snaps and averaged 17.1 points a game coming into Sunday. If that snap share slips, so does the hold.
Buy and sell
Allen, buy. Hall's absence is the cause. In the two games Hall missed, Allen played 83% of the snaps and averaged 21.5 opportunities a game. Before that: 56% and 13.6. Sunday's 22.3 points came on 53 snaps, and the yards came on the ground. Wednesday we sat Hall after a limited practice; this is the other side of that call. The trigger is Hall's return: if Allen's snaps fall from 83% back toward 56%, the price drops fast.
Bucky Irving (TB), buy. His role has grown. Irving played 73% of the snaps over Weeks 6–7, up from 61%, with 24.0 opportunities a game. Sunday he ran 27 times for 170 yards and found the end zone in a 16-0 win over Atlanta. The worry is the snap count: he and Kenny Gainwell (TB) each played 30. We read that split as the game, not a demotion, since Gainwell's carries came in a game Tampa Bay won going away. Irving has 27 red-zone looks this season, and that's the work that pays. The flip: if Gainwell gets near those 30 snaps again next week, Irving becomes a hold, not a buy.
Tyler Allgeier (ARI), sell. The cause is Arizona's Jeremiyah Love, who missed Weeks 6–7 with an ankle injury after playing half the snaps in his games. With Love out, Allgeier's opportunities jumped to 15.5 a game from 9.4. Sunday's 33.6 points came on 11 carries for 147 yards, plus five catches and a touchdown each way. Across the season he's a change-of-pace back with a 34% rush share. Sell the box score while it's fresh. The flip: if Love stays out and Allgeier keeps clearing 15.5 opportunities, hold him as a FLEX.
Tee Higgins (CIN), sell. The big day came on two touchdowns, from a receiver who had two red-zone looks all season before Sunday. Ten catches, 155 yards, 32.5 points. It happened as Cincinnati outlasted Tennessee 43-36. The role underneath is solid: 78% of the snaps and a 23% target share. If nobody in your league will pay for the 32.5, keep him and start him. Don't trade for him off this game.
Put the phone down
Jonathan Taylor (IND), start. Eight carries for 23 yards is what a 42-7 loss in Jacksonville looks like. Taylor plays 80% of Indianapolis' snaps with 23.7 opportunities a game and 26 red-zone looks. One blowout doesn't touch that. Start him, and take him over Gainwell (7.1 opportunities a game).
Javonte Williams (DAL), start. A 6.2-point day on 24 carries for 56 yards stings. The 24 carries are the part we expect to repeat. He has a 69% rush share and 33 red-zone looks this season, and Dallas still scored 30 in the loss to Arizona. Start him over Emmett Johnson (KC), whose day came on 13 snaps.
Metcalf, start. Wednesday we sat him. That was about the game. Metcalf caught one pass for 4 yards on six targets. That doesn't change the read on the player. He's played 95% of the snaps this season with a 24% target share and 8.3 targets a game. Start him over Kevin Coleman Jr. (MIA), a fourth receiver with an 11% target share.
Don't chase it
Gainwell, sit. He ran 25 times for 140 yards on 30 snaps. It came in a shutout where Tampa Bay ran like it had misplaced the passing chapter of the playbook. Across the season he's played 35% of the snaps for 7.1 opportunities a game. Gainwell scored 14 points. Sit him.
Johnson, sit. One carry and five catches on 13 snaps. The catches covered 128 yards and included a touchdown, good for 22.8 points. He averages 5.0 opportunities a game on 27% of the snaps. Sit him.
Coleman, sit. Three catches for 46 yards and a score, all on 17 snaps. He's still Miami's fourth receiver. Leave him on waivers.
Monday night
Seattle brings Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sam Darnold and Zach Charbonnet; Chicago brings Caleb Williams, D'Andre Swift and Luther Burden III. Their calls and receipts come Tuesday. Wednesday's start on Swift and sit on Burden carry into tonight, and so do Tuesday's AJ Barner add and George Holani stash.
The cheat sheet
| Player | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Braelon Allen (NYJ, RB) | Buy | With Breece Hall out Weeks 6-7, he played 83% of snaps |
| Bucky Irving (TB, RB) | Buy | 73% of snaps over Weeks 6-7 and 27 red-zone looks |
| Tyler Allgeier (ARI, RB) | Sell | Two-TD day in a fill-in role while Jeremiyah Love missed time |
| Tee Higgins (CIN, WR) | Sell | Two TDs in a shootout; two red-zone looks all season before Sunday |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND, RB) | Start | Lost 42-7; still 80% of snaps and 23.7 opportunities a game |
| Javonte Williams (DAL, RB) | Start | The 24 carries should repeat; 69% rush share and 33 red-zone looks |
| DK Metcalf (PIT, WR) | Start | 95% of snaps and a 24% target share; one catch is noise |
| Kenny Gainwell (TB, RB) | Sit | 25 carries came in a shutout; season role is 35% of snaps |
| Emmett Johnson (KC, RB) | Sit | 128 yards on 13 snaps; 5.0 opportunities a game |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. (MIA, WR) | Sit | Miami's fourth receiver; the touchdown came on 17 snaps |
| Michael Wilson (ARI, WR) | Start | 90% of snaps and 15 targets Sunday; the volume is real |
| Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE, TE) | Start | 87% of snaps all season; expect the yards to dip, not the role |