Cam Skattebo walked into Houston projected for 2.5 points and walked out with 18.6. That's the takeaway of the week, because the usage backs it up. Cam Skattebo got 17 carries in Week 7. Buy. Emanuel Wilson did the same thing in Seattle. Most of Sunday's other big lines were touchdowns doing touchdown things. One game is still to play Monday night, so anyone in it waits for Tuesday's waiver piece.
Real: the workloads showed up
Cam Skattebo, buy. He ran for 124 yards and a score on 37 snaps. The Giants won 27-21, and the 17 carries are the part we care about. We think he played like a lead back.
Emanuel Wilson, buy. Seattle gave him 24 carries on 33 snaps. He turned them into 100 yards and a touchdown in a 20-3 win. His projection was 7.4. The backfield ran through him.
Tony Pollard and Quinshon Judkins, hold. Both scored multiple touchdowns in Week 7. If you're choosing, Tony Pollard comes first. Tony Pollard got 25 carries in Week 7. Quinshon Judkins got 17. Pollard scored 35 points on 129 yards and three touchdowns, and his 47 snaps are as real as the carries. The three scores are not a weekly thing. If someone in your league wants to pay a premium for that box score, listen. We think Quinshon Judkins has a fine role. Quinshon Judkins had a Week 7 projection of 10.6 points.
Bucky Irving, start. He got 24 carries and two touchdowns in a 43-13 rout of Carolina. The script helped. The volume is what repeats.
Trey McBride, start. Thirteen targets on 75 snaps. The most dependable usage line from Sunday, at any position.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, start. He turned 12 targets into 150 yards and a score. He beat a 19.3-point projection, and nothing about it was a fluke.
Kaelon Black, stash. Kaelon Black got 12 carries on 31 snaps and scored in Week 7. His projection was 4.3. In deep leagues, he's worth a bench spot.
Put the phone down
Derrick Henry, start. Mark Andrews, hold. If you have both, trust Henry. Baltimore lost 35-13, and Henry still got 17 carries for 45 yards. In our view, a back who keeps getting the ball in a lopsided loss has a role the script can't take away. Derrick Henry's Week 7 projection was 16.9 points. It was there for a reason. Andrews caught three of four targets on 38 snaps in the same game. We think that workload gap is the whole story. What would flip it: a close game where Baltimore keeps throwing to its tight end.
Justin Jefferson, start. Four catches for 44 yards on seven targets. He played 55 snaps. The targets were there, and the yards will follow.
Garrett Wilson, start. The closest call in this group. He played 50 snaps in Week 7 but saw only three targets. We'd start him on the snaps. What would flip it: another three-target game.
Sam LaPorta, start. Sixty-six snaps, two targets. That's a weird week, not a new role.
Nico Collins, start. He caught two of five targets for 6 yards. His Week 7 projection was 14.9 points. We'd start him. In our view, only a worse injury report this week would flip it.
Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker III, hold. Kansas City played at Seattle in Week 7. It was a long flight home. Mahomes threw 33 passes for 165 yards. Walker got 14 carries and five targets on 39 snaps. The volume was fine; the offense wasn't.
Don't chase it
Caleb Douglas, sit. Two touchdowns on three targets. His projection was 5. Leave him on the waiver wire.
Mason Taylor, stash. Kenyon Sadiq, sit. Mason Taylor scored twice in Week 7 on a projection of 2.9 points. He drew six targets in Week 7. The touchdowns won't repeat, but we think that volume is worth a bench spot. Kenyon Sadiq played 22 snaps and caught one ball in Week 7. If you want a Jets tight end, Mason Taylor is the one.
Luther Burden III, hold. He turned four targets into 130 yards and a touchdown. Great afternoon, not much volume. Keep him, but don't start him on this alone.
Devin Singletary, sit. Devin Singletary played 19 snaps in Week 7, and the touchdown carried all 13 points. Skattebo is the back you want.
Sean Tucker, sit. Sean Tucker played nine snaps of blowout work in Week 7. In a blowout, everybody gets a piece.
Devaughn Vele, sit. Five catches on five targets with a score, but New Orleans scored 10 points. That's not an offense we chase.
Good games that were mostly real
Joe Burrow, start. Four touchdowns on 30 attempts at Baltimore. Joe Burrow had a Week 7 projection of 19.5 points.
Tee Higgins, hold. Seven targets is a real role. The yards are the bonus.
Bo Nix, start. He ran for 74 yards and a score on top of 222 through the air. Rushing gives a quarterback a floor, and this one got him to 26.3 points.
Michael Penix Jr., stream. He threw three touchdowns on 34 attempts and played 68 snaps. He's a matchup stream, not a weekly lock.
Jameson Williams, hold. Nine targets on 57 snaps is the real part. Two touchdowns made it 23.6.
Jonathan Taylor, start. Eighteen carries for 95 yards and a score, right on his projection.
Rhamondre Stevenson, hold. He caught five passes for 93 yards and a score but got only six carries. The receiving work was real. The rushing floor is thin.
Josh Jacobs, hold. He saw seven targets and caught a touchdown. The targets are the reason to hold.
T.J. Hockenson, hold. Five targets on 45 snaps. The touchdown did the heavy lifting.
Rico Dowdle, hold. He caught all six of his targets on 28 snaps in Week 7. He's listed as questionable with a knee injury. Hold him until he's cleared.
Quiet days, smaller calls
Aaron Jones Sr., sell. Aaron Jones Sr. played 15 snaps in Week 7. That is the number that matters to us.
Germie Bernard, hold. Germie Bernard played 58 snaps and drew five targets in Week 7. We think the role is there, even if the yards weren't.
Wan'Dale Robinson, hold. Six targets for 7 yards. Keep the targets, forget the yards.
Isaiah Likely, hold. Isaiah Likely played 57 snaps in Week 7. He drew four targets in that game. We expect that number to grow.
Juwan Johnson, sit. Thirty-two snaps and three targets isn't enough to start.
Cam Ward, sit. Cam Ward's a bench quarterback in one-QB leagues.
Bryce Young, hold. He threw for 163 yards in a 43-13 loss, well under his 18.7 projection. Blowouts do that. One bad game isn't enough to drop him.
Jalon Daniels, drop. Jalon Daniels played six snaps in Week 7. Use the roster spot on someone else.
The cheat sheet
| Player | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III (CHI, WR) | Hold | 130 yards on four targets is efficiency, not volume. |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE, RB) | Hold | Five catches were real; six carries keep the rushing floor thin. |
| Devaughn Vele (NO, WR) | Sit | A touchdown on five targets in a 10-point offense. |
| Rico Dowdle (PIT, RB) | Hold | Six catches on 28 snaps, but the knee makes him questionable. |
| Germie Bernard (PIT, WR) | Hold | 58 snaps is a real role; the 27 yards were noise. |
| Juwan Johnson (NO, TE) | Sit | 32 snaps and three targets isn't a starting tight end. |
| Tee Higgins (CIN, WR) | Hold | Seven targets are real; 148 yards won't be weekly. |
| Joe Burrow (CIN, QB) | Start | Four touchdowns on 30 attempts, and his projection already said start. |
| Mark Andrews (BAL, TE) | Hold | Four targets to Henry's 17 carries in the same blowout; trust Henry if you have both. |
| Derrick Henry (BAL, RB) | Start | |
| Tony Pollard (TEN, RB) | Hold | 25 carries in Week 7; the carries repeat, three touchdowns don't. |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE, RB) | Hold | 17 carries in Week 7 is solid; two touchdowns inflated it. |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN, WR) | Hold | Six targets for seven yards; keep the targets, forget the yards. |
| Cam Ward (TEN, QB) | Sit | 181 yards and no touchdowns on 31 attempts. |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN, TE) | Hold | 45 snaps and five targets; the touchdown carried the line. |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND, RB) | Start | 18 carries and a score, right on his projection. |
| Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN, RB) | Sell | 15 snaps in Week 7 is the warning sign. |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN, WR) | Start | Seven targets on 55 snaps; the yards will come back. |
| Mason Taylor (NYJ, TE) | Stash | Six targets in Week 7 is interesting; two touchdowns won't repeat. |
| Caleb Douglas (MIA, WR) | Sit | Two touchdowns on three targets is the definition of a fluke. |
| Kenyon Sadiq (NYJ, TE) | Sit | 22 snaps and one target in Week 7. |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ, WR) | Start | 50 snaps in Week 7; three targets is the outlier. |
| Cam Skattebo (NYG, RB) | Buy | 17 carries in Week 7 after a 2.5-point projection. |
| Devin Singletary (NYG, RB) | Sit | 19 snaps in Week 7; the touchdown did all the work. |
| Isaiah Likely (NYG, TE) | Hold | 57 snaps in Week 7; four targets should become more. |
| Nico Collins (HOU, WR) | Start | Projected for 14.9 in Week 7; one bad game doesn't change the call. |
| Kaelon Black (SF, RB) | Stash | 12 carries in Week 7 earns a deep-league bench spot. |
| Michael Penix Jr. (ATL, QB) | Stream | 34 attempts and three scores; a matchup stream, not a weekly lock. |
| Sean Tucker (TB, RB) | Sit | Nine snaps of Week 7 blowout work. |
| Bucky Irving (TB, RB) | Start | 24 carries in Week 7 is the real part of a big day. |
| Bryce Young (CAR, QB) | Hold | Blowout script sank him; one ugly game against a high projection. |
| Jalon Daniels (TB, QB) | Drop | Six snaps in Week 7. |
| Trey McBride (ARI, TE) | Start | 13 targets on 75 snaps is elite tight end usage. |
| Bo Nix (DEN, QB) | Start | 74 rushing yards and a score give him a real floor. |
| Jameson Williams (DET, WR) | Hold | Nine targets are real; two touchdowns are the bonus. |
| Josh Jacobs (GB, RB) | Hold | Seven targets in Week 7 is the reason to hold. |
| Sam LaPorta (DET, TE) | Start | 66 snaps in Week 7; two targets won't hold. |
| Emanuel Wilson (SEA, RB) | Buy | 24 carries in Week 7 after a 7.4-point projection. |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, WR) | Start | 12 targets and 150 yards; this is who he is. |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC, QB) | Hold | Kansas City scored three; 33 attempts still means volume. |
| Kenneth Walker III (KC, RB) | Hold | 14 carries and five targets in a three-point offense. |