Should last week's target volume push Ja'Marr Chase to the bench while Keon Coleman's receiving burst earns him a start? We keep Chase in the starting plan if he is active and leave Coleman out for now because the next chance to earn targets matters more than the points already on the scoreboard. In FCT's Week 4 data, Chase drew 3 targets and Coleman drew 7. Those are the opportunities we need to revisit, alongside Chase's availability, before treating either result as a lineup rule.
The FCT Week 5 projection gives Chase 14.4 half-PPR points. The FCT Week 5 projection gives Coleman 7.5 half-PPR points. Our call rests on a practical distinction: a quiet game can still leave a player worth starting, while a productive game can leave us waiting for repeatable work. We want the final injury report where health is in question and the next box score where the size of a role is in question.
The overthinking board
We use the completed Week 4 games to frame these lineup calls. We pair each player's recent work with a move and a next check, such as carries, pass attempts or targets, that could change the decision.
| Player | Matchup | FCT's Week 4 Stats | Week 5 Rank | Our Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery (HOU), RB | atTEN | 10 carries, 24 rushing yards | RB13 | Start if kickoff news confirms he is active |
| Parker Washington (JAX), WR | vs.PHI | 3 targets, 7 receiving yards | WR15 | Start if active; check the next target count |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF), TE | atLAR | 2 targets, 1 catch | TE10 | Start if active; review his next target count |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN), WR | atMIA | 3 targets, 15 offensive snaps | WR5 | Start if the final injury report clears him |
| Davante Adams (LAR), WR | vs.BUF | 9 targets, 32 receiving yards | WR11 | Hold until practice and kickoff news clarify availability |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE), RB | vs.LV | 14 carries, 42 rushing yards | RB23 | Start if active; review his next carry count |
| Kirk Cousins (LV), QB | atNE | 52 pass attempts, 365 passing yards | QB22 | Sit until another box score supports sustained passing volume |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (CLE), RB | atNYJ | 1 offensive snap, 1 rushing touchdown | RB64 | Sit until snaps and touches expand |
| Keon Coleman (BUF), WR | atLAR | 7 targets, 116 receiving yards | WR38 | Sit until the next box score confirms target volume |
| Michael Mayer (LV), TE | atNE | 10 targets, 8 catches | TE26 | Sit until another box score confirms target volume |
Quiet weeks to look past
A short gain on a handoff or a pass that never arrives at its target can make a starting decision feel uncomfortable. We would act on the work available to each player while keeping the next workload check attached to the decision.
David Montgomery's modest rushing return makes us uneasy about starting him. David Montgomery had 10 carries and 24 rushing yards in Week 4. We would start David Montgomery if kickoff news confirms he is active. We will check his carries in the next box score; a clear retreat in that work would make this recommendation harder to keep.
The quiet receiving day makes Parker Washington's place in a lineup feel less secure. Washington drew 3 targets in Week 4. For a player relying on passes to reach him, target volume is the part of the workload we need to see again; a single low-return afternoon is a reason to watch it closely. We would start him if he is active at kickoff, then revisit the move when the next box score gives us another target count.
A nearly empty catch line is the worry with Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid drew 2 targets in Week 4. His path to receiving points depends on passes coming his way, so the next target count matters more to this call than a hope that the same small workload will yield a different result. We would keep him in the lineup if active. Monitor his targets in the next box score and reconsider if the opportunities remain scarce.
The abrupt drop in receiving work makes Ja'Marr Chase's quiet game particularly hard to ignore. Chase played 15 offensive snaps in Week 4. Ja'Marr Chase had full practice participation and is questionable for Week 5. Health is the immediate lineup decision: he needs to be available for any target volume to turn into points. We start him if the final injury report and kickoff news clear him, unless his active/inactive status rules him out. Confirm that status before locking the lineup.
The low yardage total can obscure the receiving work Davante Adams had. Adams drew 9 targets in Week 4. That volume offers a clear scoring path if he can take the field, but Davante Adams did not participate in practice. We would hold the lineup decision until the final practice report and kickoff news clarify his availability. If he is active, we trust the target opportunity; if he is inactive, the lineup has to move on. His health check takes priority over revisiting the yardage.
The small fantasy return makes TreVeyon Henderson's week look like a reason to pull him. Henderson had 14 carries in Week 4. A carry is another chance to gain yards or reach a scoring play, and that work gives us a concrete reason to keep him under consideration despite the quiet result. We would start him if kickoff news confirms he is active. Watch the next carry count; a reduced workload would change how readily we make that move again.
Big weeks not to chase
A touchdown on the scoreboard or a crowded receiving line can pull a player toward a starting slot. Before making that change, we want another box score that supports the workload behind the points.
The passing outburst makes Kirk Cousins tempting as a quick lineup switch. Cousins attempted 52 passes in Week 4. That many attempts create room for a productive day, but we need another substantial passing workload before relying on it for a start. We would sit him this week. The specific reason to change course is another box score with sustained pass attempts; until then, the recent yardage stays a result rather than our plan for the next lineup.
The touchdown makes Jaleel McLaughlin easy to notice on a waiver screen. McLaughlin played 1 offensive snap in Week 4. A scoring play from that little field time gives us too little opportunity to rely on when setting a lineup. We would leave him on the bench. Give him a start only after the next box score shows that snaps and touches have expanded enough to provide chances beyond a single scoring play.
The receiving burst invites us to put Keon Coleman straight into a starting slot. Coleman drew 7 targets in Week 4. Those passes gave him a path to his big day, and we want to see that path remain open before making the lineup change. We would sit him for now. Check his targets in the next box score; sustained opportunity would earn a fresh start decision, while a thin target day would leave the bench call in place.
The busy catch line makes Michael Mayer appealing after a frustrating week elsewhere in a lineup. Mayer drew 10 targets in Week 4. Targets are the right reason to reconsider him, because they create chances for catches without requiring an unusually productive play. We would sit him until another box score confirms that receiving work. If the target volume holds up, we can make a start decision with an observed workload behind it.
Closing lineup rule
As the kickoff clock approaches, use the final injury report to settle Chase and Adams. For everyone else, keep the next box score in view: targets, carries and snaps are the checks that can turn this week's start, sit or hold into a different call.