Week 9 Start/Sit: 10 Players Managers Are Overthinking

Sam Darnold (SEA), Wednesday's sit, is out, and Seattle's game with Arizona has rain and 20 mph wind in the forecast. Projections jumped. Devin Singletary (NYG) went from 7.2 on Tuesday to 13.1, with Cam Skattebo doubtful and Tyrone Tracy Jr. on injured reserve. Alvin Kamara (NO) went from 2.2 to 8.

Relax. The headline call: George Pickens (DAL) is the cold name to start.

Singletary at Philadelphia: sit withdrawn

We've withdrawn this sit. It rested on Singletary's change-of-pace role: 33% of the snaps with 6.8 opportunities a game.

In his last game he scored 13.0 points against Houston, 6 of them from one touchdown, on 29% of the snaps. He has led Giants backs in snaps over his last two, at 40% and 29%.

Cam Skattebo (NYG) is doubtful. Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) is on injured reserve. The Giants visit Philadelphia in the lowest total on the board, 38.5.

Receipts

Two Saturdays ago we backed Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE), and he paid off with 10.1, a hit. Wednesday's start over Kyle Pitts Sr. (ATL) holds below.

The same piece backed Bijan Robinson (ATL), and 14.7 points made it a miss. We'd still play him, with Atlanta facing Cincinnati in Madrid in the week's highest total, 52.5, and Friday's Joe Burrow (CIN) start stands. Both play in Sunday's morning game, the first to lock, so set them before anything else.

The real decisions

Pickens at Indianapolis: start

Start Pickens. The quiet stretch has a cause: playing through a shoulder issue, he was on the field for 60% and 57% of the snaps in his last two games, down from 85% before. This week it's a hamstring, with limited practice and a questionable tag. The season still says he's the guy, with a 21% target share.

Dallas at Indianapolis is tied for the second-highest total, 51.5, and Dallas is implied for 28. The Colts allow 27.8 points a game.

Cooper averages 3.3 targets a game. If Dallas lists Pickens inactive, Cooper plays in the same early window, so the swap is easy.

Kamara against Cleveland: sit

Sit Kamara, and yes, this reverses us. Earlier this season we backed him on a Saturday, and he delivered 13.9 points. The job has moved since: Kendre Miller (NO) has 17.5 opportunities a game over the last two to Kamara's 12.0.

The depth chart still lists Kamara first. The usage says otherwise, and the reason for that split is unclear. He didn't practice Wednesday, and on the season he's at 35% of the snaps.

New Orleans is a 3.5-point favorite over a Cleveland team scoring 17.4 a game. A lead means carries, and those have been Miller's. Wednesday said Kamara sits even if he's active, and that holds. Only Miller landing on the inactive list moves us, and that would make Kamara a FLEX. If you roster Miller, he's the back to start.

Pitts against Cincinnati: sit

Sit Pitts, as we said Wednesday, and not because of 1.6 points. Two catches for 6 yards on 29 snaps is just the loud version of his role. He plays 58% of the snaps with a 15% target share and 4.0 targets a game. He's also been second in snaps among Atlanta's tight ends over the last two games, and the reason is unclear.

The case for him is the game. Atlanta faces Cincinnati in Madrid in the week's highest total, 52.5, with the Falcons implied for 24.75. The case against is Fannin, with 87% of Cleveland's snaps and 6.4 targets a game.

So the flip runs through Fannin's game. Cleveland's implied total is 19.5 points. That's not enough yet. If it drops another full point before Atlanta's morning kickoff, Fannin's spot gets thin enough to start Pitts over him.

Put the phone down

Zach Charbonnet (SEA), start. His 4.4 points came on 37% of the snaps in his first game back from a knee injury. That's a ramp, and Seattle is an 8.5-point favorite over Arizona with Darnold out. Tuesday's AJ Barner (SEA) add stands.

The flip: only a surprise inactive.

Cooper, start as a FLEX. Zero targets on 78% of the snaps is the odd part, not the snaps. He saw 7 and 5 targets in the two games before, and we expect the Jets to be throwing late as 8.5-point underdogs at Kansas City.

Josh Jacobs (GB), start. Twenty-one carries for 39 yards was ugly, and two touchdowns covered for it. He's the lead back, with a 71% rush share and 22.5 opportunities a game in two games, and that workload plays in the rain at New England.

The flip: only a surprise inactive.

Don't chase it

Tyler Allgeier (ARI). Two touchdowns and 147 rushing yards made 33.6 points. We've withdrawn this sit. It rested on Allgeier's change-of-pace role: 52% of the snaps with 11.8 opportunities a game. Zonovan Knight (ARI) is ruled out. Jeremiyah Love (ARI) is on injured reserve. Arizona is implied for 15.5 points, last on the board.

Michael Wilson (ARI), start. Arizona is an 8.5-point underdog at Seattle. Fifteen targets and a touchdown built his 22.8 points, and the volume behind them is real. With Marvin Harrison Jr. gone to Houston, Wilson has 13.0 opportunities a game over his last two on 89% of the snaps, and a 26% target share keeps him in lineups. The weather and those 15.5 implied points cap his ceiling, and he was limited in practice, but only Arizona ruling him out changes this.

Kirk Cousins (LV), start. Four touchdowns on 26 attempts made 28.2 points, and Friday told you not to expect that again. Wednesday's start over Jordan Love (GB) stands, and so does Friday's Brock Bowers (LV) start. San Francisco is a 9.5-point favorite with the week's highest implied total, 30.5, so we expect Las Vegas to be throwing all afternoon.

The flip: The total drops sharply before kickoff.

The cheat sheet

Correction: two sits in an earlier version of this piece are withdrawn; their entries say why. It also misstated where Atlanta and Cincinnati play: the game is in Madrid. Two outdated flips, on Zach Charbonnet and Josh Jacobs, are updated.