Final calls, no homework. Start Puka Nacua, Saquon Barkley and Breece Hall if they're active, and sit Rico Dowdle whether he plays or not. Start Aaron Rodgers and Quinshon Judkins, FLEX DK Metcalf, and sit J.J. McCarthy in one-QB leagues. Tyler Allgeier is a deep-league FLEX only, and Kenyon Sadiq stays on the bench. NFL teams post their inactive lists about 90 minutes before kickoff. That's where we'd settle every injury question. Set an alarm, not a lineup, until then.
The cheat sheet
| Player | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy (NYG, QB) | Sit | QB26 with the week's lowest implied total; superflex start only |
| Tyler Allgeier (ARI, RB) | FLEX | Deep-league FLEX for the red-zone work; Judkins and Metcalf go first |
| Kenyon Sadiq (NYJ, TE) | Sit | TE33 whose snaps fell to 27% the last two games |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI, RB) | Start | RB16 if active; full practice outweighs the tag, Judkins if he's out |
| Puka Nacua (LAR, WR) | Start | WR2 if active; check inactives 90 minutes before kickoff |
| Breece Hall (NYJ, RB) | Start | Lead back with 20.3 opportunities a game if active |
| Rico Dowdle (PIT, RB) | Sit | Change-of-pace back at RB32, active or not |
| Aaron Rodgers (PIT, QB) | Start | QB12 on 38.8 attempts a game; 19 mph wind is the risk |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE, RB) | Start | Lead back with 18.6 opportunities a game, even in the week's lowest total |
| DK Metcalf (PIT, WR) | FLEX | 95% of snaps and 8.7 targets a game; first in if Puka sits |
Game-time decisions
Puka Nacua, start if active. He's questionable with a calf injury after not practicing on the latest injury report. That's the scariest status on this board, and it still doesn't change the call. He's WR2 this week with an 18.5-point projection. He sees 13.0 targets a game, and Rams-Raiders has the third-highest total of the week at 48.5. Don't bench him early to feel safe. Check the list 90 minutes before the Rams kick off in Las Vegas. If he's out, DK Metcalf takes the spot.
Saquon Barkley, start if active. He's questionable with a hamstring, but he was a full participant on the latest injury report. We trust the full practice over the tag. He's RB16 with a 13.2-point projection and sits atop Philadelphia's depth chart. It's a committee, though: he plays 38% of the snaps and gets 10.8 opportunities a game. The Eagles are 4.5-point home underdogs to Dallas with a 19.5-point implied total, so don't expect a ceiling game. We still think he's a start in a two-back lineup. If he's out, Judkins takes the spot.
Breece Hall, start if active. He's questionable with a quadricep injury after a limited practice on the latest report. When he plays, he's the Jets' lead back with a 60% rush share and 20.3 opportunities a game. The Jets host Miami as 4.5-point favorites with a 22-point implied total. He's RB17. If he's inactive, Judkins is your pivot.
Rico Dowdle, sit. He's questionable with a knee injury after a limited practice on the latest report, and the tag barely matters. Even healthy, we see him as Pittsburgh's change-of-pace back. He's RB32, and the game in New Orleans brings rain and 19 mph wind. Bench him, active or inactive.
Receipts
Saquon Barkley. In Week 4 we said sit. He scored 1.5 points and finished RB61. Good call. This week we're reversing it. His opportunity is worth 7.5 half-PPR points a game against the 5.3 he's actually scored, so we expect the scoring to drift up if the role holds. Add the full practice and the RB16 rank, and the sit becomes a start.
Puka Nacua. In Week 6 he scored 11 and finished WR24. Miss. We're not moving off him. He plays 85% of the snaps with a 32% target share. We think his early output ran a little hot. Even cooled off, he's WR2.
Aaron Rodgers. In Week 5 we said sit. He scored 22 and finished QB12. That one's on us, and we've changed our minds (see below).
DK Metcalf. Last Saturday we said he'd beat his projection. He caught 11 of 15 targets for 93 yards. That was 14.8 points and a WR12 finish. Good call, and part of why he's our FLEX this week.
The movers
J.J. McCarthy, sit (superflex start). On Tuesday his Week 7 projection was 0.3. Now it's 13.3. A trade from the Vikings to the Giants and a QB1 spot on the depth chart will do that. Tuesday he was a rounding error. Sunday he's a starting quarterback. The Giants visit Houston as 10.5-point underdogs, and their 16-point implied total is the lowest of the 26 teams playing. He's QB26. In superflex, we think he's a fine body. In one-QB leagues, leave him on the bench.
Tyler Allgeier, FLEX in deep leagues. His projection climbed 3.8 points to 9.9, good for RB24. He's Arizona's RB2, a change-of-pace back with a 34% rush share. The case for him is 13 red-zone looks, which give him a real shot at a touchdown. The case against: 18 carries for 38 yards in Week 6. The Cardinals host Denver as 4.5-point underdogs with a 19.5-point implied total. It's close, and Judkins and Metcalf both go ahead of him. What flips it: if your other option is a pure part-timer with no goal-line work, play Allgeier.
Kenyon Sadiq, sit. He's TE33 with a 4.0-point projection. Blame the snap count. He played 27% of the Jets' snaps in his last two games, down from 48% before that. In Week 6 that meant one catch for 12 yards on 22 snaps. He's a rookie TE2, and there's no case for starting him against Miami.
The lineup line
Aaron Rodgers, start. He's QB12 with a 17-point projection. He averages 38.8 pass attempts a game and plays 99% of the snaps. In Week 6 he threw 49 times with two touchdowns. That volume makes him a start. The risk is the forecast: rain and 19 mph wind. This one's close. What flips it: if your other quarterback is in a comparable spot in a dry, calm game, we'd play that one. The wind is reason enough.
Quinshon Judkins, start. He's RB22 with a 10.2-point projection, and he's Cleveland's lead back. He plays 60% of the snaps with 18.6 opportunities a game. His opportunity is worth 13.8 points a game against 9.5 scored, so we expect a bounce if the role holds. The catch is the game: Cleveland at Tennessee has the lowest total on the board at 36.5, with the Browns at a 19-point implied total. We think the role beats the matchup. If Breece Hall is active and you have both, we'd start Breece Hall over Quinshon Judkins.
DK Metcalf, FLEX. He's WR26 with a 10.3-point projection. He plays 95% of the snaps with a 24% target share and 8.7 targets a game. That's a receiver who doesn't disappear, and Week 6 showed it. He's in the same rain-and-wind game as Rodgers, so the ceiling takes a hit. He's still our FLEX over Allgeier, because a full-time receiver beats a part-time back.
The close calls
Judkins or Allgeier: Judkins, the lead back over the change-of-pace back. Metcalf or Allgeier: Metcalf, for the snaps. Aaron Rodgers or a comparable quarterback in calm weather: we'd take the calm weather. We'd call everything else settled, pending the inactive lists.