Week 10's closest call is between two Tuesday pickups: start Corey Kiner over Kaleb Johnson. Both are covering for a hurt starter. Kiner shares work with rookie Lan Larison, but Johnson already shares with Pierre Strong Jr. and could get two more backs back by Sunday.
Receipts
- Last Wednesday's starts on Luther Burden III (17.2 half-PPR, WR9) and Parker Washington (13.1, WR19) both hit.
- Kendre Miller didn't play, and New Orleans has since waived him. Tough review.
- Tuesday's hold on Adonai Mitchell was a roster call, and it stands. In lineups, he sits.
Quarterback
Start Tyler Shough over Drew Lock. Shough played all 72 snaps last week and ran 10 times for 51 yards, so his floor doesn't depend on the passing line. Carolina ranks 20th in QB points allowed, and the Saints have a 25.5-point implied total as 2.5-point home favorites. On paper Lock has the better matchup: the Raiders allow the third-most QB points. They also allow the third-most RB points, though, and Lock threw just 28 times for 175 yards in last week's 17-3 win while playing through elbow tendinitis and an oblique. Seattle has no reason to throw much. Flip to Lock if Chris Olave is a DNP on Friday's Saints report.
Running Back
Start Corey Kiner over Kaleb Johnson. Rhamondre Stevenson (knee) is expected to miss Sunday in Munich, and TreVeyon Henderson is sidelined with unexplained neurological symptoms. Kiner had one carry before Stevenson went down against Green Bay and finished with 8 for 55 and a touchdown. Rookie Lan Larison played more snaps (13 to 10) but got one carry, and Mike Vrabel says Kiner still has to improve his blitz pickup. You're buying early downs and goal-line work, not third downs. Detroit allows the third-fewest RB points, but New England's 24.5 implied points, in the week's second-highest total (51.5), leave room for a score.
Johnson's 14 carries for 68 yards and a touchdown were the best game by a Packers back this year, and Josh Jacobs is out with a fractured finger that the Packers say needs surgery this week. The problem is who's coming back. MarShawn Lloyd (knee) missed only last week, and Matt LaFleur gave Chris Brooks a "good chance" to come off IR this week. Minnesota allows the ninth-fewest RB points. Even if Lloyd is ruled out and Brooks stays on IR, Pierre Strong Jr. took eight carries next to Johnson last week, so this still isn't Johnson's backfield alone. Flip only if Stevenson is active in Munich.
Start Woody Marks over Tyler Allgeier. David Montgomery (groin) hasn't played since Week 5, and DeMeco Ryans only hopes he resumes practicing "this week, or next week." Marks took 22 of Houston's 31 RB opportunities last week, and the Texans are 4.5-point favorites in Cleveland. Allgeier played 96% of the snaps last week and turned 17 carries into 46 yards. Now Carson Beck makes his first NFL start, Arizona's 15-point implied total is the lowest on the board, and the Rams allow the fourth-fewest RB points. A full practice by Friday wouldn't settle it in his first week back. Flip only if Houston or the beat says Montgomery is set for his old share.
Sit Devin Singletary on Thursday. His 24 opportunities last week came with Cam Skattebo (hamstring) out. Skattebo practiced in full Tuesday, and Washington allows the seventh-fewest RB points. Flip only if Skattebo is inactive.
Sit Aaron Jones Sr. Jordan Mason out-snapped him 22-16 last week, and Demond Claiborne's trip to IR doesn't change that.
Wide Receiver
Start Omar Cooper Jr. over Adonai Mitchell. With Garrett Wilson in the concussion protocol, Cooper caught 8 of 11 targets last week. Mitchell caught none of his seven and dropped two. Before his Week 8 zero, Cooper had back-to-back 100-yard games. Buffalo allows the eighth-most WR points, and the Jets are 8.5-point underdogs, so expect them to throw a lot. If Wilson returns, Mitchell loses more than Cooper does. Flip only if Cooper turns up on Friday's report.
Start Antonio Williams over Deebo Samuel Sr. Terry McLaurin (torn patellar tendon) is done for the year, and Dyami Brown (calf) went to IR Saturday. Williams played 52 of 62 snaps last week, the most of any Washington receiver. But Treylon Burks (foot) went from a DNP Monday to limited Tuesday, so check Wednesday's final report: if Burks plays Thursday, another receiver is competing with Williams for targets. The Giants rank 20th in WR points allowed, and Thursday's light rain with wind around 10 mph won't sink anyone. Samuel hasn't played since Week 5 (hamstring) and was only slated to start practicing Wednesday. Meanwhile San Francisco just traded for Keenan Allen. The case for Samuel: 49ers-Cowboys has the week's top total at 55.5, and Dallas allows the seventh-most WR points. But he drew 15% of the targets when healthy, and players coming back from a hamstring usually get their snaps managed. The 49ers' Thursday report comes out before kickoff. A full practice alone won't flip this. Flip only if the team or a beat reporter says he's set for his usual snaps.
Tight End
Start Hunter Henry over T.J. Hockenson. Detroit allows 21.1 half-PPR points a game to tight ends, more than five points worse than any other defense. Henry's dip came from a foot injury, not a demotion. He didn't practice last week until a limited Friday and still ran 22 routes, the most among Patriots tight ends. Rookie Eli Raridon's six targets mean you're starting him for the matchup. Hockenson has the cleaner role (83% of the snaps, seven targets), and Kirk Cousins is likely to start after Tuesday's trade, but Green Bay allows the second-fewest TE points. Flip if Henry misses practice Thursday or Friday.
Injury Fallbacks
- Samuel (hamstring): Lean sit. Start him only if the team or the beat says he's set for his usual snaps; a full practice isn't enough. Fallback: Williams.
- Henry (foot): Lean start. Fallback: Hockenson.
- Patrick Mahomes (elbow): Day-to-day. Lean he plays. If he's out, start Shough.
- Montgomery (groin): Lean out. Being active doesn't move Marks. Bench him only if Houston or the beat projects Montgomery for his old timeshare this week.
- Skattebo (hamstring): Lean plays. If he's inactive, start Singletary.
Cheat Sheet
| Start | Over | Matchup | Flip |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shough | Lock | CAR 20th vs. QBs, NO 25.5 implied | Olave DNP Friday |
| Kiner | K. Johnson | 51.5 total vs. a stingy DET run D | Stevenson active |
| Marks | Allgeier | HOU -4.5, ARI 15 implied | Montgomery set for his old share |
| Cooper | Mitchell | BUF 8th-most to WRs, NYJ +8.5 | Cooper on Friday report |
| A. Williams | Samuel | NYG 20th vs. WRs, light rain | Report says Samuel's set for usual snaps |
| Henry | Hockenson | DET allows the most to TEs | Henry misses practice |
Sit: Singletary (Thursday), Jones.