Week 8 Start/Sit: Jordan Love Over Jared Goff

Start Jordan Love over Jared Goff, and settle it early: Green Bay plays Thursday night. Love draws a Carolina defense allowing 27.7 points a game, while Goff runs into an unbeaten Minnesota team allowing 12.3.

Receipts

Ashton Jeanty. Our Week 6 Wednesday piece said sit. We're flipping it: he's Las Vegas' lead back on 70% of the snaps with 31 red-zone looks, and that's a start.

Harold Fannin Jr. and Mark Andrews. Fannin scored 10.1 points. Andrews scored 3.8, and his shrinking role is why we're off him now.

Quarterback

Start Love over Goff. Green Bay hosts Carolina in the third-highest game total on the board, with a 25.5-point implied total and sun in the forecast. The Panthers just gave up 43 to Tampa Bay. Love has played every snap this season and averages 38.7 attempts a game. Minnesota is the problem: 6-0 and giving up just 12.3 per game. The flip: if Green Bay's line slides toward a pick'em before Thursday, take Goff's season instead.

Start Patrick Mahomes over Kyler Murray. Put the phone down. The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites in Denver with showers in the forecast, so temper the ceiling. Murray is the part-timer: 84% of the snaps and 11.1 points a game. He does draw the softer defense, with Detroit giving up 27.5 a game.

Running back

Start Jeanty over Breece Hall. Raiders at Jets, same game, so this is a role call. Jeanty's role is bigger: 70% of the snaps and 6.3 targets a game. That receiving work became eight catches and a touchdown last week. His touches have dipped to 16.0 a game over the past two weeks, from 23.6, and we think the targets cover it. Hall is a lead back on 58% of the snaps over just three games, and he was limited in practice. The flip: if Jeanty's touches stay below 16.0 a game while those 6.3 targets drop too, Hall takes the spot.

Start D'Andre Swift over Saquon Barkley. Don't chase it. Barkley turned 7 carries into 62 yards and a touchdown. He did it on 10 snaps, which makes it a cameo, not a role: his snap share sits at 11% over the last two games, down from 48%. Philadelphia visits Washington as a 6-point underdog, and its 17.25-point implied total is the lowest of the 28 teams playing. Swift is heading the other way, with 71% of the snaps across that same stretch and 23.5 opportunities a game. The flip: if Barkley's snap share climbs from 11% back toward 48%, or Swift's falls back from 71%, Barkley is the start.

Wide receiver

Start Michael Wilson over DK Metcalf. Arizona at Dallas is tied for the week's highest total at 54.5, with Dallas a 7-point favorite, so we expect Arizona to be throwing late. Wilson is Arizona's top receiver, with 90% of the snaps and 9.4 targets a game. Metcalf has nearly the same job at 95% of the snaps and 8.3 targets. Pittsburgh-Cleveland, though, has the lowest total on the board at 39.5. The flip: if Dallas's 7-point edge shrinks and Arizona doesn't have to throw late, Metcalf's 95% snap share wins the tie.

Start A.J. Brown over Luther Burden III. The Patriots are 7-point favorites in Miami, and the Dolphins allow 26.2 points a game. Brown has three games in New England since the trade from Philadelphia, with a 22% target share and 6.7 targets a game. Burden is the box score everybody will chase: four catches, 130 yards and a touchdown. Frame it; don't start it. His snaps fell to 49% in his last two outings. The flip: if that share climbs back toward the 64% he played before, Burden becomes the start.

Tight end

Start Fannin over Andrews. Role against matchup, and we're taking the role. Andrews has the far better game: Baltimore at Buffalo is tied for the week's highest total. His looks have fallen from 6.0 a game to 3.5 across his last two. Fannin plays 87% of Cleveland's snaps with a 19% target share. Last week he turned nine targets into 91 yards. Cleveland's 18-point implied total ranks 27th of 28; the snaps carry him anyway. The flip: if you're a big underdog in your matchup and need a ceiling, Andrews' shootout is the swing.

Injury fallbacks

Brown, limited in practice. We lean he plays, and if he's active he starts over Burden. If he's out, Burden is the fallback, and the timing works: the Patriots play in the late window Sunday, and Chicago doesn't kick off until Monday night. Settle it with New England's inactive list before the late games.

Hall, limited in practice. We lean he plays, and it barely changes anything. Active, he sits behind Jeanty. Inactive, Jeanty already has the spot.

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