Week 9 Start/Sit: Start Ollie Gordon II Over Saquon Barkley

Start Ollie Gordon II (MIA) over Saquon Barkley (PHI) in your closest running back spot: Gordon has 24.0 opportunities a game over the last two with De'Von Achane not playing. Barkley didn't practice on the latest report, and Philadelphia's 17.5 implied points rank 28th of 30 teams.

Receipts

Last Wednesday's start on D'Andre Swift (CHI) hit at 26.9 points, and he's still a start.

Luther Burden III (CHI) scored 13.5 points in Week 6, so our sit missed. Burden averages 7.0 targets a game and has 13 red-zone looks. We're flipping to a start.

Our Week 5 sit on Gordon missed at 14.8, and Achane's absence changed the job, so that sit is gone. Alvin Kamara (NO) hit our Week 6 call at 13.9 but sits now, with a missed practice and Kendre Miller (NO) holding the bigger workload.

Quarterback

Start Cousins over Love. Kirk Cousins (LV) gets a 21.25-point implied team total. San Francisco is a 10-point favorite in a 52.5 total, tied for the highest on the board, with sun and 6 mph wind forecast. Jordan Love (GB) draws rain and 9 mph wind at New England. The defenses wash: the 49ers allow 19.9 points a game, the Patriots 20.3. Love throws more, 39.0 attempts a game to 35.4; Cousins scores more, 20.6 points to 19.4. Don't chase his four touchdowns from last week. We're starting him for the volume a big deficit should bring. If the rain clears out of New England, we'd take Love's attempts.

Start Love over Darnold. Arizona allows 29.8 points a game, which is why this one is close. Tuesday's add on Sam Darnold (SEA) stands as a roster move, and he's been Seattle's starter since Week 3, but the lineup call differs. He sat out practice, and the forecast has rain and 16 mph wind. Seattle is also an 8.5-point favorite, so we expect the late work to stay on the ground. Love has the volume, 39.0 attempts a game to Darnold's 30.1. Love averages 19.4 points a game. A full practice and a calmer forecast put Darnold ahead of Love. Tuesday's adds on Tyler Allgeier (ARI) and AJ Barner (SEA) stand too.

Running back

Start Gordon over Barkley. Detroit allows 25.7 points a game, but Miami is a 7-point home underdog in rain, and that script could squeeze a back with 1.3 targets a game. Still, with Achane out the last two, Gordon jumped from 48% of the snaps to 82%. Barkley missed two games with a hamstring injury and has ramped from 15% of the snaps to 32% since. Philadelphia also sits in the week's lowest total at 38.5. Our Week 4 sit on Barkley hit when he scored 1.5, and we stay there. If Achane plays, Gordon's fill-in role ends, so take Barkley if he's active. Tuesday's add on Malik Willis (MIA) stands.

Start Swift over Gordon. Both are filling in; Swift has the better spot. Chicago is a 6-point home favorite with 26.75 implied points to Miami's 21.75. Tampa Bay allows 18.9 points a game. Swift averages 28.0 opportunities a game over his two most recent games. We don't expect last week's three touchdowns to repeat. We think the 30 opportunities can. If Kyle Monangai plays, expect Swift back toward 19.3 and take Gordon.

Start Miller over Kamara. New Orleans is a 3-point home favorite with 22.75 implied points, and Cleveland allows 21.6 a game. With Travis Etienne Jr. not playing the last two, Miller took 17.5 opportunities a game, up from 8.8 before. Kamara has 11.3 a game this season and 8 red-zone looks to Miller's 13. Miller's workload is a fill-in role, so if Etienne is active, sit both.

Wide receiver

Start Burden over Parker Washington (JAX). The volume is nearly identical: 7.0 targets a game for Burden, 6.9 for Parker Washington (JAX). Baltimore allows 25.4 points a game. That's the softer draw, and it goes to Jacksonville. Chicago's implied team total is 26.75 points. Burden has 13 red-zone looks. Those numbers still decide it. Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite Thursday, in rain. Jacksonville won 42-7 last week. If that spread shrinks before Thursday, we'd take Washington.

Start Washington over Flowers. Washington's game, other end of the spread. Zay Flowers (BAL) has the bigger role, a 30% target share to Washington's 25%. But Baltimore's 14.75 implied points are last of 30 teams, closer to a shoe size than a scoring outlook. If the 39.5 total climbs before Thursday, Flowers' targets take this back.

Tight end

Start Loveland over Fannin. Colston Loveland (CHI) and Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) posted the same jump across the last two, from 5.0 opportunities a game to 10.5. Loveland's has a cause: Cole Kmet went on the reserve list. The reason for Fannin's is unclear, so don't chase his 154 yards from last week. New Orleans allows 27.7 points a game, a softer draw than Tampa Bay. But Cleveland's 19.75 implied points rank 25th to Chicago's 6th. If Kmet is activated, we'd take Fannin.

Start Fannin over Pitts. This one rests on the season, not the spike. Fannin plays 87% of the snaps and sees 6.4 targets a game. Kyle Pitts Sr. (ATL) plays 58% and sees 4.0. Pitts has the better game, with Atlanta in that tied-highest 52.5 total, but he turned 5 targets into 6 yards last week. Cleveland's implied team total is 19.75 points. If that slides much further, we'd take Pitts.

Injury fallbacks

Barkley: lean sit. Gordon's Miami is implied for 21.75 points. Fallback: Gordon, on the early inactive lists.

Kamara: lean sit. Cleveland is implied for 19.75 points. Fallback: Miller, same early window.

Darnold: lean sit. Arizona is implied for 15.5 points. Fallback: Love, on the late inactive lists.

The cheat sheet