Stream the Packers. Kirk Cousins got traded back to Minnesota on Tuesday, and he has less than a week to relearn the offense before facing a defense that lives on takeaways at Lambeau. Rostered numbers are ESPN's. Lines are DraftKings from early Thursday.
The stream board
1. Packers vs. Vikings (45% rostered). Cousins threw eight picks in nine Raiders starts, a 2.5% interception rate, and three of them came in his last game there. Kevin O'Connell still says it's "too early to commit wholeheartedly" to him. The fallbacks are worse: Kyler Murray (hamstring) didn't practice Wednesday and Carson Wentz (ankle) was limited. Green Bay ranks second in turnover rate. Minnesota's implied total is 19.8, and the Lambeau forecast is dry with barely a breeze. Flips if: Lukas Van Ness (DNP Wednesday, back) gets ruled out Friday. Don't build the pick around Micah Parsons. He's still on reserve/PUP, and he was limited in his 21-day practice window, which doesn't mean he'll play. Green Bay has to activate him first, and the turnover rate above was built without him. If he's activated, count it as a bonus. Then Indy takes the top spot.
2. Colts vs. Dolphins (9%). With Malik Willis on IR, Kyle McCord makes his first NFL start, which is also his first regular-season snap. That means he has no sack or pick rate yet. Miami scores 15.8 points a game (31st) and is implied for 17.5 at Lucas Oil Stadium, in the week's lowest total (38.5). Know what you're buying: Indy ranks 30th in sacks plus takeaways. This is a bet on the quarterback, not the defense. Flips if: Miami's implied total climbs past 19.5 by Sunday.
3. Chargers at Ravens (9%). Jacoby Brissett got benched in Arizona on Nov. 1 after going 10-of-23 for 108 yards and a pick against Dallas. Ten days after the trade, he's Baltimore's fourth starting quarterback in four games. The Ravens are implied for 21.5 in a 38.5 total. It's the Monday game, so it doubles as late insurance. Flips if: Baltimore's total moves past 23.
Pass: Giants vs. Commanders tonight (36%). Rain is likely at MetLife (74% at kickoff, gusts to 23 mph). This rush is also getting home lately. Dennard Wilson's blitz-heavy defense sacked Daniels five times in the Week 5 tie, then dropped Joe Milton seven times in Sunday's 19-11 win in Philadelphia. That's why New York's season-long pressure rate (last in the league at 18.9%) undersells what this unit is doing right now, and it gives the Giants a real sack floor. The ceiling is still the problem. Daniels is the only qualified quarterback who hasn't thrown an interception this season, and a 36%-rostered stream has to make its money on takeaways. A wet football doesn't change who's holding it.
Set and forget: Rams at Cardinals
Carson Beck, a rookie taken after the second round, makes his first start after Gardner Minshew's season-ending elbow injury. He's Arizona's third starter in three weeks. The Cardinals are implied for 15, the lowest number on the slate. Start the Rams and close the app.
Avoid: Steelers at Bengals
Pittsburgh's defense is legit. It allows 18.0 points a game, fifth-fewest, and T.J. Watt has 7.5 sacks. This is just the wrong week. Cincinnati is implied for 26.5, and Joe Burrow completes a league-best 74.7% of his passes against zone, the coverage Pittsburgh leaned on when the Bengals put up 27 on it in Week 3. Flips if: Cincinnati's total drops below 24 before Sunday night.
If the Packers are gone
Take the Colts, not the Giants. It's the same bet on a quarterback who's never done this, and 91% of leagues have left Indy on the wire.
